How Tablets will change the World

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The April 2010 edition of Wired has a series of articles on how the tablet will change the world.

Wired is known for its bold prognostications and this article is no exception:

  • the tablet will eventually replace laptops
  • people will carry around an iPhone and iPad (or Google equivalent), using the cloud and home computers for syncing
  • tablets like the iPad mark the end of the Graphical User Interface (GUI) and text as the dominant medium which will be replaced by the NUI (Natural User Interface) based on touch, gestures, and voice recognition.
  • tablets are the start of a new interface of direct manipulation of a window on the world
  • publishing will be transformed from books to multimedia communities closer to the gaming model
  • tablets won’t just be for lean back multimedia consumption, they will also be used for lean forward productivity
  • tablets are compared with electronic flight bags and will incorporate affordable versions of capabilities like heads up displays where relevant data is overlaid on real time views.
  • the tablet will be a battleground between Apple’s vision of a pristine orderly autocratic personal device vs. Googles vision of a web cloud that operates through a browser.

    • While I think it is good to see Wired stir up people to imagine a bright new future, the actual impact of the iPad and other tablets is likely to be much more evolutionary than revolutionary. Text will still be pretty important for a long time and the NUI will only gradually replace the GUI. I don’t need the iPad or other tablet device to completely replace my laptop yet. People will still read traditional books for a long time but personally I think the pieces are falling into place such that more and more of my library will be available as ebooks that I can comfortably enjoy in a portable and accessible format that will become more interactive and immersive. I am still concerned about DRM and longterm viability of reader formats so my library investment is protected. The imminent introduction of the iPad has already caused Amazon/Kindle and Chapters-Indigo/Kobo to take preemptive action on pricing and new capabilities. I don’t think the new inexpensive ($150) Kindlelike Kodo device has a chance for people looking for a multi-function device but it should be interesting to have healthy competition on price and selection. I also hopeful that competition will also spur innovation in the format, business models, and prosumer ecosystem that could emerge. Gaming could indeed be a source for new entrants to change the game of publishing to go beyond what traditional books had to offer.

    1 thought on “How Tablets will change the World”

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